Liberty Bell Blues

A Philadelphia conservative tries to stay sane in a city full of liberals

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Location: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States

Friday, April 27, 2007

Don't panic over slower economic growth. The mainstream media will probably try to discourage the public about the economy even more than usual today. The reason? Gross domestic product grew at only 1.3% in the first quarter, the slowest growth rate since early 2003. Should we panic? I say no. First of all, I wouldn't be surprised if the figure is soon revised upward, like it often is. Second, we saw similarly slow GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2005 (1.8%) but the economy came back strong the following quarter, growing at an impressive 5.6% rate in the first quarter of 2006. It takes more than one quarter to tell the tale. That is why economists define a recession as consisting of at least two consecutive quarters of economic shrinkage. As of now, the economy has been growing steadily for five-and-a-half years, yet the media has portrayed it as a weak economy. Remember this: the economy grows during war time. The recent troop surge in Iraq and higher government spending on the war is likely to keep the economy growing. Some economists are not predicting a recession this year; others say there is a one-in-three chance of a recession occurring soon. My advice: don't worry about a recession until it happens, and even when it does, try to go on living your normal lifestyle. That's the best defense we have as consumers against an economic downturn.

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